“When Fools Rush In”

Olly Newland’s Column, August 2008

We are now about six months into the real property downturn. Until last December there was still a positive note — despite the collapse of several finance companies and with other hints of worse to come.

Now there are those who say ‘the worst is over’ and that we can look forward to a more stable market and the resuming of the property bubble.

I do not believe that at all. Some optimists and their advisors are merely seeing a false dawn, in my view, and there is much more pain to come.

Since the beginning of the year, many more local finance companies have collapsed or shut their doors, and overseas the financial markets are still deep in trouble.

Sooner or later there will be a real crisis, with emergency measures to be taken — and that will be the end of the beginning.
It often takes a crisis to solve a crisis.

Judging from previous experience, I’d say we are probably about one-third of the way through the problem, with much more unpleasantness to come, but (and this is an important distinction) only for a relatively FEW.

Learning from the past
During the 1987-1991 meltdown down both locally and internationally I was continually amazed to see that the restaurants were full, properties were still sold for good prices, people continued to go on expensive overseas trips and buy the finest wines.

This taught me that a recession (for that is officially what we are in) really only affects a small number of people. For many, it is business as usual.

While 10% of the population may be suffering in the recession, 90% ARE NOT.

Now all this is good news indeed for many property owners and I, for one, am more optimistic than ever. Here’s why.

If we are one-third of the way through with two-thirds to go:
It means that the real upturn (or least a stable market) will likely arrive towards the end of next year, 2009. Hence, most of us can while away the the rest of recession in relative comfort until then.

It means that investors can now drive bargains that were unthinkable to many 12 months ago. Take advantage of this while you can.

It means that fuel prices should steadily fall (not all the way back, but enough to take the hurt away), interest rates should drop (cheers!) and the banks will relax their po-faced attitude of today and be more realistic tomorrow.

All we have to do is survive for the next 18 months or so, gather up real bargains in the meantime, and get ready for the better times ahead.

Can we get this over with?
You may well may ask if the difficulties we are seeing now could be put right more quickly?
In my view, no, that will not be possible for the following reasons:

(1) Something like $4 billion or $5 billion of people’s spending power has been locked up in failed or frozen finance companies. For an economy the size of New Zealand this is way too much. It matters very little if the frozen money is lost or is eventually returned in part — the effect is the same.

(2) Remember that the statistics quoted — that ‘only’ around 16,000 investors are affected — are patently untrue. Each investor will have have dependants and family, all of whom will be affected to one degree or another. More likely 300,000 people have been affected with stalled deals, properties not settled, projects frustrated, purchasing power crimped. This takes a long while to work through the system, and hence the time delay.

(3) In addition to the finance company debacle, we have more and more lay-offs, and companies reducing profits. All this tends to make people think twice about spending on any major items. (Just ask the car dealers.)

(4) For every mortgagee sale you may see advertised, I estimate there are at least another 50 others who are under real pressure and are selling before the bank does it for them. This backlog has to be cleared away as well.

(5) Even if interest rates were slashed by the Reserve Bank, I doubt it would help. This approach has been tried in the USA and Japan with negligible results. Ask yourself: If interest rates were suddenly reduced to 6% would you rush out and buy everything in sight? I doubt it.

(6) Then we have the problem of inflation. Having lived through hyper-inflation in the 70s and 80s I know it can be both a curse and a blessing. Inflation erodes savings and makes money dearer to buy. On the other hand, it drives up prices — and property is the first to benefit. Inflation is the potential curve ball in the whole equation. All predictions can be thrown out should inflation become a serious issue once again.

The way forward
It is with these points in mind that I caution property owners and investors NOT to rush in right now just because prices may have a slipped a little.

But this is important: don’t stay in hibernation either.

What I DO encourage is that buyers start to learn and get a feel for the market. Go out and look at everything for sale — don’t necessarily buy anything. The current painful volatility is a relatively rare opportunity for you to observe a market in turmoil and to study the ugly side of capitalism.

Of course should a real bargain turn up (at say 20-25% below current market) then maybe a buyer should chance their arm… but how will someone ‘uneducated’ in property investment or unfamiliar with the market tell a bargain from a lemon? It’s time to get educated.

Advice for those under pressure to sell
(1) Deal with the problem early. Delay is your enemy.

(2) Go to your bank or mortgagee and explain the circumstances. As unpleasant as that may be, the alternative is worse.

(3) Usually the bank will give you up to three months ‘relief’ with no further payments required (capitalising the interest). Of course if you have left it late and already missed a a payment or two, you may not get this relief. Hence the need for early action.

(4) The bank does NOT want to take your house back and will do anything to prevent that. They would much prefer that you put the property on the market yourself, selling it in the ordinary manner for the best price achievable.

(5) Remember, if you are unfortunate enough to find yourself in a mortgagee sale situation you can actually pay the arrears right up to the fall of the hammer, if you find the funds, and keep your property.

(6) Suggest to the bank that they take an equity stake in your property. i.e. They become part owners in exchange for some of the debt. When times are better the property can be sold and the bank will get their share of any upside as well. This was done to good effect in the UK during the severe downturn in the market in the early 1990s.

Are the media to blame?
Some people are saying that a lot of the present troubles have been caused by the media and their sensational stories of gloom and doom. This is bunkum for at least two reasons.

The media only reports events as they happen — they do not invent them. The market is bigger and stronger than the media by far. There is no way the media can influence the market to such an extent that it creates a recession.

Besides, no-one was complaining about the influence of the media when property prices were rising at the rate of a “$1000 a week”. People seemed happy enough then.

In conclusion
The present market is a nightmare for some and can be a bonanza for others. With a good education on how to survive and prosper in a falling market and the ability to act in conjunction with proper advice from impartial sources, it is quite possible to take advantage of this falling market to steadily build up a portfolio of residential and/or commercial property — which can be a springboard to secure your future.

In the months and years ahead I am sure there will be many who will look back and say that they should have acted but have missed out again through inaction.
Make sure you are not one of them.

If you want good things to happen you must take action and the sooner the better.
The more action you take the more chance you have of getting ahead.
Become active.
Become educated.
And above all — never give up!

Olly Newland
25 August 2008
© 2008 Olly Newland. All rights reserved.

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A group of frogs were traveling through the woods, and two
of them fell into a deep pit. When the other frogs saw how
deep the pit was, they told the two frogs that they were as
good as dead. The two frogs ignored the comments and tried
to jump up out of the pit with all their might. The other
frogs kept telling them to stop, that they were as good as
dead. Finally, one of the frogs took heed to what the other
frogs were saying and gave up. He fell down and died.

The other frog continued to jump as hard as he could. Once
again, the crowd of frogs yelled at him to stop the pain and
just die. He jumped even harder and finally made it out.
When he got out, the other frogs said, “Did you not hear
us?” The frog explained to them that he was deaf. He thought
they were encouraging him the entire time.

Take care with how you talk to anyone who you come into
contact with. It is incredible the power a positive word can
have on someone, but in the same breath also amazing the
damage you can do with a negative word. Be one of those
special people who take the time to encourage. It will never
be forgotten.

What’s the secret to growing it?

If you’ve had a modicum of success in business, you probably know
what you should be doing but you don’t know how to create the
systems to maximize your leads, sales and profits.

Most business owners I talk to are sitting on huge untapped profits
and their biggest problem is not the lack of ideas but knowing
where to focus their marketing or how to systematically start
tapping all the money they could be making.

Where could you be making more?

Most seasoned business owners could be making more in at least
eight areas including:

- Generating more leads with their ads, mailings and websites,
Additional profit potential = 25-1,500%

- Converting more of these leads into eager prospects,
Additional profit potential = 30-80%

- Closing more sales,
Additional profit potential = 20-40%

- Increasing per customer profits with cross-selling and up-selling,
Additional profit potential = 12-40%

- Getting more repeat sales,
Additional profit potential = 14%

- Retaining more customers and profits,
Additional profit potential = 10%

- Getting more referrals,
Additional profit potential = 18%

- Making better use of sales partners.
Additional profit potential = 50-500%

How much more could you be making by establishing profit making
systems for each of the above?

A minimum of over 179%!

What’s 179% more than you made last year? Since I don’t know what
you made I don’t know the answer, but I’ll bet you it’s enough to
pay for that renovation you’ve had planned or that new car you want.

Even if you only made improvements in half of the areas mentioned
above you could still easily increase your profits by 90% this year.

Now that you know where to focus your efforts to increase your
profits, what are you going to do about it?

FYI, I’ve only got two openings for my one-on-one Astronauts
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]]> http://mymillionaire-secrets-revealed.com/business/online-business/how-is-your-business-going-to-survive-and-eventhrive-in-this-down-economy/feed/ http://mymillionaire-secrets-revealed.com/misc/are-you-uniquely-flawed-could-that-be-your-strendht-or-wealkness/ http://mymillionaire-secrets-revealed.com/misc/are-you-uniquely-flawed-could-that-be-your-strendht-or-wealkness/#comments Thu, 24 Jul 2008 06:01:49 +0000 Axel Misc Millionaire Mindset Health Entreprenuership Mental Personality Profiles http://mymillionaire-secrets-revealed.com/misc/are-you-uniquely-flawed-could-that-be-your-strendht-or-wealkness/ The Cracked Pot
By: Author Unknown

A water bearer in India had two large pots, each hung on the
end of a pole which he carried across his neck. One of the
pots was perfectly made and never leaked. The other pot had
a crack in it and by the time the water bearer reached his
master’s house it had leaked much of it’s water and was only
half full.

For a full two years this went on daily, with the bearer
delivering only one and a half pots full of water to his
master’s house. Of course, the perfect pot was proud of its
accomplishments. But the poor cracked pot was ashamed of its
own imperfection, and miserable that it was able to
accomplish only half of what it had been made to do.

After two years of what it perceived to be a bitter failure,
it spoke to the water bearer one day by the stream. “I am
ashamed of myself, and I want to apologize to you.”

“Why?” asked the bearer. “What are you ashamed of?”

“I have been able, for these past two years, to deliver only
half my load because this crack in my side causes water to
leak out all the way back to your master’s house. Because of
my flaws, you have to do all of this work, and you don’t get
full value from your efforts,” the pot said.

The water bearer felt sorry for the old cracked pot, and in
his compassion he said, “As we return to the master’s house,
I want you to notice the beautiful flowers along the path.”

Indeed, as they went up the hill, the old cracked pot took
notice of the sun warming the beautiful wild flowers on the
side of the path, and this cheered it some. But at the end
of the trail, it still felt bad because it had leaked out
half its load, and so again the pot apologized to the bearer
for its failure.

The bearer said to the pot, “Did you notice that there were
flowers only on your side of your path, but not on the other
pot’s side? That’s because I have always known about your
flaw, and I took advantage of it. I planted flower seeds on
your side of the path, and every day while we walk back from
the stream, you’ve watered them. For two years I have been
able to pick these beautiful flowers to decorate my master’s
table. Without you being just the way you are, he would not
have this beauty to grace his house.”

Each of us has our own unique flaws. We’re all cracked pots.
Don’t be afraid of your flaws. Acknowledge them, and you too
can be the cause of beauty. Know that in our weakness we
find our strength.

A store owner was tacking a sign above his door that read
“Puppies For Sale.” Signs like that have a way of attracting
small children, and sure enough, a little boy appeared under
the store owner’s sign. “How much are you going to sell the
puppies for?” he asked.

The store owner replied, “Anywhere from $30 to $50.”

The little boy reached in his pocket and pulled out some
change. “I have $2.37,” he said. “Can I please look at
them?”

The store owner smiled and whistled and out of the kennel
came Lady, who ran down the aisle of his store followed by
five teeny, tiny balls of fur. One puppy was lagging
considerably behind. Immediately the little boy singled out
the lagging, limping puppy and said, “What’s wrong with that
little dog?”

The store owner explained that the veterinarian had examined
the little puppy and had discovered it didn’t have a hip
socket. It would always limp. It would always be lame. The
little boy became excited. “That is the puppy that I want to
buy.”

The store owner said, “No, you don’t want to buy that little
dog. If you really want him, I’ll just give him to you.”

The little boy got quite upset. He looked straight into the
store owner’s eyes, pointing his finger, and said, “I don’t
want you to give him to me. That little dog is worth every
bit as much as all the other dogs and I’ll pay full price.
In fact, I’ll give you $2.37 now, and 50 cents a month until
I have him paid for.”

The store owner countered, “You really don’t want to buy
this little dog. He is never going to be able to run and
jump and play with you like the other puppies.”

To his surprise, the little boy reached down and rolled up
his pant leg to reveal a badly twisted, crippled left leg
supported by a big metal brace. He looked up at the store
owner and softly replied, “Well, I don’t run so well myself,
and the little puppy will need someone who understands!”

Do you have someone who Understands!

Click on the Photo to see how good Your Xray Vision Is….

By: Author Unknown

Wishing to encourage her young son’s progress on the piano, a mother took her boy to a Paderewski concert. After they were seated, the mother spotted a friend in the audience and walked down the aisle to greet her.

Seizing the opportunity to explore the wonders of the concert hall, the little boy rose and eventually explored his way through a door marked “NO ADMITTANCE.” When the house lights dimmed and the concert was about to begin, the mother returned to her seat and discovered that the child was missing.

Suddenly, the curtains parted and spotlights focused on the impressive Steinway on stage. In horror, the mother saw her little boy sitting at the keyboard, innocently picking out “Twinkle, Twinkle Little Star.”

At that moment, the great piano master made his entrance, quickly moved to the piano, and whispered in the boy’s ear, “Don’t quit. Keep playing.” Then leaning over, Paderewski reached down with his left hand and began filling in a bass part. Soon his right arm reached around to the other side of the child and he added a running obbligato. Together, the old master and the young novice transformed a frightening situation into a wonderfully creative experience.The audience was mesmerized.

That’s the way it is in life. What we can accomplish on our own is hardly noteworthy. We try our best, but the results aren’t exactly graceful flowing music.

But when we trust in the hands of a Greater Power, our life’s work truly can be beautiful. Next time you set out to accomplish great feats, listen carefully. You can hear the voice of the Master, whispering in your ear, “Don’t quit. Keep playing.”

A weary mother returned from the store,
Lugging groceries through the kitchen door.
Awaiting her arrival was her 8 year old son,
Anxious to relate what his younger brother had done.

“While I was out playing and Dad was on a call,
T.J. took his crayons and wrote on the wall!
It’s on the new paper you just hung in the den.
I told him you’d be mad at having to do it again.”

She let out a moan and furrowed her brow,
“Where is your little brother right now?”
She emptied her arms and with a purposeful stride,
She marched to his closet where he had gone to hide.

She called his full name as she entered his room.
He trembled with fear–he knew that meant doom!
For the next ten minutes, she ranted and raved
About the expensive wallpaper and how she had saved.

Lamenting all the work it would take to repair,
She condemned his actions and total lack of care.
The more she scolded, the madder she got,
Then stomped from his room, totally distraught!

She headed for the den to confirm her fears.
When she saw the wall, her eyes flooded with tears.
The message she read pierced her soul with a dart.
It said, “I love Mommy,” surrounded by a heart.

Well, the wallpaper remained, just as she found it,
With an empty picture frame hung to surround it.
A reminder to her, and indeed to all,
Take time to read the handwriting on the wall

TRUE WEALTH IS WHAT IS LEFT AFTER ALL MATERIAL THINGS ARE GONE

Many years ago, when I worked as a volunteer at a hospital,
I got to know a little girl named Liz who was suffering from
a rare and serious disease. Her only chance of recovery
appeared to be a blood transfusion from her 5-year-old
brother, who had miraculously survived the same disease and
had developed the antibodies needed to combat the illness.
The doctor explained the situation to her little brother,
and asked the little boy if he would be willing to give his
blood to his sister. I saw him hesitate for only a moment
before taking a deep breath and saying, “Yes, I’ll do it if
it will save her.”

As the transfusion progressed, he lay in bed next to his
sister and smiled, as we all did, seeing the color returning
to her cheeks. Then his face grew pale and his smile faded.
He looked up at the doctor and asked with a trembling voice,
“Will I start to die right away?”.

Being young, the little boy had misunderstood the doctor; he
thought he was going to have to give his sister all of his
blood in order to save her.

Jenny was a bright-eyed, pretty five-year-old girl.

One day when she and her mother were checking out at the
grocery store, Jenny saw a plastic pearl necklace priced at
$2.50. How she wanted that necklace, and when she asked her
mother if she would buy it for her, her mother said, “Well,
it is a pretty necklace, but it costs an awful lot of money.
I’ll tell you what. I’ll buy you the necklace, and when we
get home we can make up a list of chores that you can do to
pay for the necklace. And don’t forget that for your
birthday Grandma just might give you a whole dollar bill,
too. Okay?” Jenny agreed, and her mother bought the pearl
necklace for her.

Jenny worked on her chores very hard every day, and sure
enough, her grandma gave her a brand new dollar bill for her
birthday. Soon Jenny had paid off the pearls. How Jenny
loved those pearls. She wore them everywhere, to
kindergarten, bed and when she went out with her mother to
run errands. The only time she didn’t wear them was in the
shower. Her mother had told her that they would turn her
neck green!

Now Jenny had a very loving daddy. When Jenny went to bed,
he would get up from his favorite chair every night and read
Jenny her favorite story.

One night when he finished the story, he said, “Jenny, do
you love me?”

“Oh yes, Daddy, you know I love you,” the little girl said.

“Well, then, give me your pearls.”

“Oh! Daddy, not my pearls!” Jenny said. “But you can have
Rosy, my favorite doll. Remember her? You gave her to me
last year for my birthday. And you can have her tea party
outfit, too. Okay?”

“Oh no, darling, that’s okay.” Her father brushed her cheek
with a kiss. “Good night, little one.”

A week later, her father once again asked Jenny after her
story, “Do you love me?”

“Oh yes, Daddy, you know I love you.”

“Well, then, give me your pearls.”

“Oh, Daddy, not my pearls! But you can have Ribbons, my toy
horse. Do you remember her? She’s my favorite. Her hair is
so soft, and you can play with it and braid it and
everything. You can have Ribbons if you want her, Daddy, the
little girl said to her father.

“No, that’s okay,” her father said and brushed her cheek
again with a kiss. God bless you, little one. Sweet dreams.”

Several days later, when Jenny’s father came in to read her
a story, Jenny was sitting on her bed and her lip was
trembling. ” Here, Daddy,” she said, and held out her hand.
She opened it and her beloved pearl necklace was inside. She
let it slip into her father’s hand.

With one hand her father held the plastic pearls and the
other he pulled out of his pocket a blue velvet box. Inside
of the box were real, genuine, beautiful pearls. He had had
them all along. He was waiting for Jenny to give up the
cheap stuff so he could give her the real thing.

So it is in life. It isn’t necessarily true that everything
expensive is good, but sometimes you need to trust in
yourself, to know who to trust and to know when to give
something up as something better is coming along.